TÜRKİYE PETROL PİYASASI ARAŞTIRMASI RAPORU - TURKISH OIL MARKET 2008
Prepared By
Armarin Co. (www.armarindenizcilik.com.tr)
1.
World Wide Oil Consumption and Turkey
Total world wide
oil consumption is 3,928 million
tonnes and Turkey’s share is 0.82 % with
the 32 million tonnes. Turkey is the
world wide 26th biggest consumer and 9th in Europe & Eurasia.
World
Wide Oil Consumption
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Million tonnes
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
US
|
951
|
944
|
942
|
885
|
Canada
|
100
|
100
|
103
|
102
|
Mexico
|
88
|
87
|
89
|
90
|
Total North America
|
1,139
|
1,130
|
1,135
|
1,077
|
Total S. & Cent. America
|
235
|
243
|
260
|
270
|
Belgium & Luxembourg
|
40
|
41
|
41
|
41
|
France
|
93
|
93
|
91
|
92
|
Germany
|
122
|
124
|
113
|
118
|
Greece
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
21
|
Italy
|
87
|
87
|
84
|
81
|
Netherlands
|
50
|
49
|
46
|
47
|
Poland
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
Portugal
|
16
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
Russian Federation
|
122
|
127
|
126
|
130
|
Spain
|
79
|
78
|
79
|
77
|
Sweden
|
15
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
Turkey
|
30
|
30
|
31
|
32
|
Ukraine
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
United Kingdom
|
83
|
82
|
79
|
79
|
Other Europe & Eurasia
|
165
|
168
|
168
|
168
|
Total Europe & Eurasia
|
958
|
969
|
947
|
955
|
Total Middle East
|
269
|
278
|
290
|
307
|
Total Africa
|
128
|
126
|
130
|
135
|
Total Asia Pacific
|
1,133
|
1,148
|
1,177
|
1,183
|
Total World
|
3,862
|
3,895
|
3,939
|
3,928
|
Source: BP World Energy Report 2009
|
|
Demand on
Petroleum Products
|
000 Tonnes
|
Products
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
%age
|
LPG
|
3,692
|
3,518
|
3,525
|
11.4%
|
Benzin
|
2690
|
2616
|
2540
|
8.2%
|
Nafta
|
824
|
985
|
821
|
2.7%
|
Jet
|
1,976
|
2,012
|
2,186
|
7.1%
|
Motorin
|
11049
|
11981
|
12953
|
41.9%
|
Heavy Fuel Oil
|
6,397
|
4,631
|
4,015
|
13.0%
|
Lubricant
|
514
|
544
|
571
|
1.8%
|
Asphalt
|
1,753
|
2,179
|
2,292
|
7.4%
|
Other Products
|
691
|
706
|
1,086
|
3.5%
|
Total Local Demand
|
29,586
|
29,172
|
29,989
|
97.1%
|
International Bunkers
|
1,069
|
990
|
904
|
2.9%
|
Total Local Demand inc. Bunkes
|
30,655
|
30,162
|
30,893
|
100.0%
|
Source:
Petroleum Association of Turkey, PETDER, Annual Report 2008
2.
Petroleum
Importation and Production in Turkey
In 2008, 24, 21 million tones of crude oil were
processed in Turkey, 21, 74 million tones of this amount was imported crude
oil, 2, and 47 million tones was domestic crude oil. The imported crude oil is
approximately 90% of the total crude oil processed in 2008.
Crude petroleum amounts of refining undertaking
license holders in 2006, 2007, 2008 according to countries are shown below;
Country
|
Amount (1.000 tones)
|
Share (%)
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
Iran
|
9.121
|
8.356
|
7.800
|
38
|
36
|
36
|
Russia
|
6.871
|
9.365
|
7.137
|
29
|
40
|
33
|
S. Arabia
|
3.354
|
3.556
|
3.073
|
14
|
15
|
14
|
Iraq
|
552
|
865
|
1.874
|
2
|
4
|
9
|
Kazakhstan
|
-
|
-
|
636
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
Syria
|
-
|
244
|
515
|
-
|
1
|
2
|
Italy
|
-
|
447
|
447
|
-
|
2
|
2
|
England
|
-
|
-
|
184
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
Azerbaijan
|
-
|
-
|
77
|
-
|
-
|
<1
|
Libya
|
4.165
|
612
|
-
|
17
|
3
|
-
|
Total
|
24.063
|
23.445
|
21.743
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Source:
Energy Market Regulation Authority of Turkey, ERMA, Annual Report 2008
The total crude oil import of refining undertakings in Turkey was 23, 44
million tones in 2007 whereas in 2008 this figure declined 1, 7 million tones
and realized as 21, 74 million tones. It can be understood from the table
above, the biggest share in crude oil import belongs to Russia and Iran, the
share of Iran, Russia and S. Arabia in total import is approximately 83%.
2008 domestic liquid fuel supply;
Type of liquid fuel
|
Refinery Generation(tones)
|
Refinery
Import(tones)
|
Import of
distributors(tones)
|
Total
|
Benzene Types
|
4.417.749
|
0
|
334.387
|
4.752.136
|
Diesel Types
|
6.572.795
|
2.248.123
|
5.668.306
|
14.489.224
|
Fuel Oil Types
|
4.801.967
|
459.282
|
174.907
|
5.436.156
|
Total
|
15.792.511
|
2.707.405
|
6.177.600
|
24.677.516
|
Source: Energy Market Regulation Authority of Turkey,
ERMA, Annual Report 2008
In procurement of benzene, diesel and fuel oil types, the share of generation
in refineries in total supply is approximately 64% and the shares of refinery
import and distribution companies are 11% and 25% respectively. The table above shows that the import is made
on diesel types to a great extends.
Domestic sale of refining undertakings;
Product Types
|
2006(1.000 tonnes)
|
2007(1.000 tonnes)
|
2008(1.000 tonnes)
|
Change (%) 2006/ 2007 - 2007 / 2008
|
Naphtha
|
1.010
|
771
|
532
|
-23,7
|
-31,0
|
Benzene Types
|
1.814
|
1.897
|
1.969
|
4,6
|
3,8
|
Gas Oil
|
21
|
15
|
11
|
-28,6
|
-26,7
|
Diesel Types
|
7.561
|
8.362
|
8.278
|
10,6
|
-1,0
|
Fuel Oil Types
|
3.628
|
2.954
|
3.089
|
-18,6
|
4,6
|
Jet Fuel
|
2.012
|
2.186
|
2.295
|
8,6
|
5,0
|
Base Oil
|
306
|
308
|
252
|
0,7
|
-18,2
|
Asphalt
|
2.180
|
2.292
|
2.260
|
5,1
|
-1,4
|
Other*
|
196
|
204
|
217
|
4,1
|
6,4
|
Total
|
18.728
|
18.989
|
18.903
|
1,3
|
1,3
|
Source: Energy Market
Regulation Authority of Turkey, ERMA, Annual Report 2008
It is seen from the table that sale of naphtha and gas
oil has a tendency to reduce, and the sale of benzene and jet fuel has a
tendency to increase.
3.
Market Growth in Turkey
Turkish market has a big potential for growth. Turkish economy has a
dynamic population.
An analysis on petroleum consumption shows that the market has a huge
potential improvement capacity.
Petroleum consumption per capita is extremely under European level. See
consumption per capita as well as the comparison.
Therefore it may assume that a big growth can be expected. Another
indication is the car ownership.
Turkey’s car ownership is extremely under the EU. See the below
graphic.
Petroleum
Consumption Per Capita
|
|
|
kg/year
|
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
General
|
406
|
395
|
400
|
Benzin
|
37
|
35
|
34
|
Motorin
|
101
|
110
|
119
|
Source: Petroleum Association of
Turkey, PETDER, Annual Report 2008
Petroleum Consumption Per Capita
|
|
|
|
tonnes/year
|
|
4
|
|
3.18
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
|
|
|
1.67
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.40
|
|
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USA
|
|
EU
|
|
TR
|
|
|
|
Source: Competition
Committee Report 2008
|
Another indication is the car ownership. Turkey’s car ownership is
extremely under the EU. See the below graphic.
Car Ownership Per
Capita
|
|
|
|
car/1,000 person
|
|
|
581
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
600
|
|
|
|
495
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
450
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
300
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
150
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
75
|
|
|
75
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
İta
|
|
EU
|
|
TR
|
|
|
|
Source: Competition
Committee Report 2008
|
Turkey has a market volume 32 million tones per year
in 2008. It is expected that it will be increased to 35 million tones until
2015 and 39 million until 2020.
See the below graphic for the estimation.
Growth Expectation
Source: Competition
Committee Report 2008
4.
Oil Market in Turkey
In Turkey an independent governmental organization
regulates and control the market which is called Energy Market Regulation
Authority (EMRA). The necessary licenses are given by EMRA.
As of September 2009 there are 4 Refineries, 53 fuel
distribution companies, 93 storages 12,610 gas stations in Turkey. Presently 5
big fuel distribution companies have been dominating the Turkish market. Those
have 84% of market shares.
Number Of Gas stations
|
Company
|
#
|
POAS
|
3,140
|
SHELL & TURCAS
|
1,200
|
OPET
|
1,300
|
BP
|
600
|
TOTAL
|
350
|
OTHERS
|
6,020
|
TOTAL
|
12,610
|
Following tables show the market shares.
Petroleum Market Shares
Source: Competition
Committee Report 2008
Petroleum Products
Market Shares
|
|
|
White
|
Black
|
|
Gasoline
|
Diesel
|
Goods
|
Goods
|
POAS
|
25.8
|
33.6
|
32.1
|
49.8
|
SHELL & TURCAS
|
29.9
|
18.8
|
20.9
|
3.3
|
BP
|
18.8
|
13.9
|
14.9
|
9.8
|
OPET
|
13.5
|
14.6
|
14.4
|
15.1
|
TOTAL
|
6.7
|
6.7
|
6.7
|
3.4
|
OTHERS
|
5.3
|
12.4
|
11.0
|
18.6
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Source: Petroleum
Association of Turkey, PETDER, Annual
Report 2008
|
|
|
Market
Shares Diesel (Motorin) Market Shares
Source: Competition
Committee Report 2008
Sales Returns and profits in 2006
|
US$ million
|
Company
|
Return
|
Profit
|
POAS
|
9,785
|
186
|
SHELL & TURCAS
|
2,553
|
N/A
|
BP
|
3,700
|
72
|
OPET
|
3,970
|
84
|
Source:
www.hurriyet.com.tr
|
|
|
